CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-02-16T13:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-02-16T13:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44685/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2026-02-16T13:23Z. This CME is also seen as a faint, partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is most likely a large eruption best seen in SDO AIA 171 and SDO AIA 304 starting around 2026-02-16T12:18Z spanning S30E15 to S10W05. Subsequent dimming and an EUV wave can also be seen in SDO AIA 193. There is no clear arrival signature in solar wind on 2026-02-18 and 19. (Please note that there is a very weak/unclear CME arrival signature on 2026-02-20 (starting around 2026-02-20T22:35Z), with no accompanying increase in the solar wind speed, which is possibly a glancing blow from the the slower CME: 2026-02-16T14:08Z).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-18T19:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 870
Longitude (deg): 21E
Latitude (deg): 3S
Half-angular width (deg): 21

Notes: Faint CME. Glancing impact likely but low confidence on strength of any influence due to likely limited material content
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 29.33 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-02-17T13:40Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy